According to an article published in the NY Times on February 14, “religious parties are foundering”. Elections for parliament are to be held Monday, and according to a number of opinion polls, support for religious parties has fallen drastically in favor of more moderate groups. What this could mean, looking at the international system, is that change is coming. Pakistani citizens (along with those of many other eastern countries) have for the last five or six years been very loudly anti-western and anti-moderate in their political choices. According to Pakistani political analysts, this is not exactly the normal order of things:
“…the religious parties command only a small percentage of popular support and that the 2002 elections were an aberration, a reaction to the American intervention in Afghanistan and the result of rigging by Pakistan’s intelligence agencies, which have always had links with the religious parties.”
American intervention right next door, geographically speaking, caused an exogenous shock in Pakistani voting trends during the 2002 elections, and only now is it starting to return to a more normal state. In the violent northwest especially, voters are tired of the religious parties refusing to overtly criticize organizations like the Taliban and Al Qaeda, despite the harm they almost routinely cause Pakistani citizens.
“’They did not serve the people,’ said Faiz Muhammad, 47, a farmer whose son was killed in the bomb blast on an Awami political gathering on Saturday.”
Mr. Muhammad was referring to the religious parties, but resentment towards the terrorist groups is growing.
“’People are fed up because they are not opposing the attacks by the Taliban openly,’” were the words of Muhammad Jawed, a businessman.
What this shift in opinion could mean internationally is extremely important. With hard-line religious parties predicted to lose and lose badly, moderate parties are showing staggering levels of support in comparison. Terrorism and insurrection always relies, to a certain extent, upon the goodwill of the people living in the areas in which they operate. When the people as a whole begin to turn against them, they find it much harder to carry out attacks. What this might mean is another change, seen here in Pakistan as well as other Middle Eastern countries, towards a more moderate, less anti-western mindset. The ordinary people have suffered as a result of the fighting caused by the extremists, and they want it to end by electing a government who will prevent more violence, whether in the name of religion or not.
To quote Mr. Wali, a moderate who looks set to do well in the elections, “’I feel that we Pashtuns have had enough of war, enough of bloodshed, and the common man now accepts that.’”
The fire of the average citizen has finally been spent, and from the liberal view of things, this is the tip of a potentially huge iceberg. Non-state actors- in the case the citizenry of a country- are making their voices heard and saying they want no more violence, and they will back up their words with their votes. A genuinely anti-militant Pakistan could prove an immense help to western efforts in countries like Afghanistan, where tribesmen had previously tolerated militants over government soldiers, but where now the opposite might just become the case. This could mark a turning point in western relations with Pakistan as well as in western military efforts to combat terrorism. It’s early to say anything, but with a lot of luck, both the government and the people of Pakistan will agree that Pakistan will no longer be a home for religious extremism.
All quotes taken from: In Tribal Pakistan, Religious Parties Are Foundering